Fine-grained poverty alleviation performance evaluation based on solar photovoltaic projects—A case study of Huoshan County

Abstract

Poverty eradication and clean energy supply are key sustainable development goals proposed by the United Nations. As a representative of clean energy, an in-depth exploration of solar photovoltaics’ (PV) potential contribution to poverty alleviation is crucial to promoting the global sustainability agenda. This study examines Huoshan County, China, to investigate the impact of PV poverty alleviation power stations (PPAPS) on poor rural residents. A hybrid deep learning model, TCNM-AeBiLSTM, was employed to predict PV power generated by PPAPS, and fine-grained poverty alleviation benefits of PPAPS were further estimated. The ultimate economic benefits of PPAPS under different scenarios were explored by integrating the full lifecycle and China’s PV policy. TCNM-AeBiLSTM exhibited excellence in PV power prediction, with a stable R2 at 0.98. Further results reveal PPAPS in Huoshan County can bring an annual income of approximately 3735.04 to 7492.31 Chinese Yuan (CNY) for poor households. Moreover, PPAPS could achieve a 20-year cost-free profit of approximately 48.1 million CNY after recovering its costs within 4–5 years at the fastest. Our findings unveil that PPAPS can fully meet the poverty alleviation targets set by the national government and have the potential for sustainable poverty reduction in vast rural areas. The substantial economic benefits enable solar PV to emerge as a strategic tool in sustainable development, with far-reaching implications for achieving sustainable poverty reduction in rural areas globally.